A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
